Too Hard Pile
Tagged analyses
STXSeagate sells commodity HDDs in a tech-curve race we cannot handicap.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PCGCalifornia's regulated monopoly with negative owner earnings and a wildfire option strapped to it.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
MRNAModerna is a binary R&D bet with negative owner earnings; Too Hard.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
UBERUber finally earns its keep, but robotaxis make the runway unknowable.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
CVXChevron is a fine business but oil prices we cannot forecast.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
UALAirlines are the archetypal too-hard pile; cheap is not enough.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TSLATesla is too hard: outcome depends on bets we cannot rationally handicap.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
UNHCheap on paper, but regulatory fog and a leadership shock push UNH into the too-hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
JNJToo Hard: pharma cliff, talc tail, and a ROIC that collapsed to zero.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
PLTRRemarkable software, impossible price — Palantir at 758x earnings is a Too Hard.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
GSGoldman is a great franchise in a structurally unpredictable business.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
VLORefining is a commodity cycle we cannot price; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
XOMExxonMobil is a commodity giant whose value floats on a barrel of oil.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
BGCommodity-cyclical agribusiness with no moat and negative IV — pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
LLYGreat medicine, fragile math: at $963 we are paying nine times intrinsic value.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
OXYA commodity producer at 2x intrinsic value fails the circle-of-competence test.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
SATSEchoStar is a spectrum-and-satellite story priced above base intrinsic value.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
INTCIntel is a turnaround bet on physics and policy, not a compounder.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
DISIconic IP, two great businesses, one bleeding pivot — too hard at $103.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03