Switching Costs
noun · the friction a customer faces when leaving
Tagged analyses
AAPLWorld-class business at a fair price; wait for $260 or less.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMDA cyclical chip designer priced like a perpetual monopoly — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AVGOA great business at a price that already prices in greatness.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AXPAmerican Express is a premium spend-network compounder trading at a meaningful discount to fair value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BABoeing is a duopoly franchise being run as a cash-burning wreck.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
BACGood bank, fair price — own it cheaper or own something better.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CCitigroup is a turnaround bet, not a Buffett-grade compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CARRA pure-play HVAC franchise with toll-bridge economics trading near 10x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CINFA culture-rich super-regional with priced-in book value and outsized equity portfolio leverage.
Buy · 2026-05-03
IRA serial bolt-on acquirer of mission-critical air compressors trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IRMIron Mountain is a fine business priced like a software company.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
ISRGA wide-moat surgical-robotics toll booth, but priced like the math has to work perfectly.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CCIA simple US tower REIT trapped in a complex restructuring; wait for cleaner numbers.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BROFamily-run insurance roll-up; great business, but priced for perfection after the Accession deal.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CIENCyclical optical-networking specialist priced for permanence at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
CMEA toll bridge on global rates and commodities, priced as if the bridge keeps widening.
Hold · 2026-05-03
JBLExcellent operator in a low-moat business, priced for permanent AI-server tailwinds.
Hold · 2026-05-04
JKHYMission-critical core banking utility, fairly priced, with a slow-erosion tail risk.
Buy · 2026-05-04
KDPDecent brands, mediocre returns, levered balance sheet, priced for growth that may not arrive.
Hold · 2026-05-04
KEYSExcellent test-and-measurement franchise priced for a future it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DEWide-moat ag franchise on sale at the bottom of its cycle.
Buy · 2026-05-03
GEA great franchise at a price that demands near-perfection.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
GOOGLA wide-moat compounder priced for a war it is also winning.
Buy · 2026-05-03
IBMIBM is a melting mainframe wrapped in Red Hat, priced for AI hopes it will not deliver.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
INTCIntel is a turnaround bet on physics and policy, not a compounder.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
COHRA levered photonics roll-up riding the AI optics wave at a price that prices in everything.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
KKRAlt-AM compounder with sticky locked-up capital, trading at a one-third discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CRWDPremier endpoint security platform priced for perfection at 6.7x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
DDCyclical chemicals roll-up mid-breakup; the math says wait, not own.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
DOCHealthcare REIT trading near base-case IV; AFFO is the right lens, not GAAP earnings.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DALDelta is the best airline, but airlines remain a mediocre business at fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LDOSSolid government IT contractor priced like a software platform.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CTASA great compounder priced like one — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CTSHMarket prices Cognizant for permanent decline; 18% ROIC business at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CPAYA high-quality fleet payments toll road trading at roughly a third of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
MSMorgan Stanley is a half-great wealth manager bolted to a cyclical investment bank.
Hold · 2026-05-03
MRKKeytruda is a brilliant tollbooth that loses its toll in 2028.
Hold · 2026-05-03
COONumber-three contact lens player at 0.66x IV, but ROIC of 4.9% sinks the compounder thesis.
Hold · 2026-05-03
MCHPA high-quality analog franchise emerging from a brutal cycle, fully priced today.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MCKA toll-bridge on American drug distribution, but the toll is now priced like a software franchise.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MMMA wounded compounder priced for stagnation, with optionality if litigation tails settle.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PLTRRemarkable software, impossible price — Palantir at 758x earnings is a Too Hard.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
TXNA wide-moat analog catalog house mid-cycle, mid-capex; buy under $130, trim above $215.
Buy · 2026-05-03
VVisa is the larger half of the world's best duopoly, on sale below intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
AIZBoring specialty insurer with sticky B2B2C contracts trading at two-thirds of base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-03
AMEAMETEK is a wonderful business at a price that is merely fair.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DGXQuest is a tollbooth on American blood draws, fairly priced for its modest growth.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DHRGreat franchise, ordinary returns on capital, priced like the bioprocessing boom returns.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DPZAsset-light pizza franchisor compounding global units at a clear discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ALLEWonderful door-hardware franchise, but the price already pays for the next decade.
Hold · 2026-05-03
EAOwn a sports-licensing toll booth at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ECLEcolab is a wide-moat compounder, but the price already pays for the data-center boom.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EFXOligopoly bureau with a workhorse in Workforce Solutions, but priced for sunshine.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ELVCheap BCBS licensee with eroding economics; statistical bargain, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EMRQuality automation franchise, fairly priced; wait for fear or AspenTech indigestion.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EPAMHigh-quality engineering shop on sale, but the customer is rebuilding the engine in flight.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ETNGreat electrical franchise riding a real tailwind, priced for it.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MRSHWorld's largest insurance broker, asset-light annuity, trading at 43 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MSCIMSCI is a tollbooth on global equity flows; pay $590, wait.
Hold · 2026-05-04
AJGWorld-class insurance brokerage roll-up; balance sheet stretched, price near intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMPAmeriprise is a fee-based wealth franchise wearing an annuity overcoat at half price.
Buy · 2026-05-03
APPAppLovin is a brilliant ad-tech machine priced for perfection at 1.5x intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
APDA great oligopoly business diluted by a hydrogen capex hangover priced at no margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-03
EXPDAsset-light freight forwarder with 65% ROIC; pay closer to $130 for margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EXPEA scarred OTA #2 trading near fair value with a structural search-traffic problem.
Hold · 2026-05-04
FDSFactSet is a sticky financial-data toll booth selling near tangible book of its earnings power.
Buy · 2026-05-04
FISVFi sells at 25 cents on the dollar of base intrinsic value while compounding at 17% ROIC.
Buy · 2026-05-04
GDDYGoDaddy is a toll-booth on small-business identity, trading near a fair multiple.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GENA toll-bridge on consumer cyber-anxiety, levered but cash-rich at 8.9x earnings.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GPCMediocre returns, leveraged balance sheet, optionality from a 2027 spinoff at a fair price.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BBYA toll on a flat electronics market — pay less than $90 or pass.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BAXA levered post-spinoff stub running on saline, hope, and bondholders' patience.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
BDXCheap, indebted med-tech roll-up trading at half base IV — interesting, not obvious.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BKRTwo-headed energy-tech bet on LNG turbines bolted to a commodity oilfield-services tail.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BKWorld-class custody franchise, but priced for a cycle peak.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BXPTrophy office in a structurally impaired asset class trades closer to fair than cheap.
Hold · 2026-05-03
HASMagic and D&D are the prize; the toy business is the tax.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MSIWonderful public-safety franchise priced like a SaaS darling — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MTBConservative regional bank trading at fair price; strong franchise but no obvious bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MTDA wide-moat precision-instruments compounder, fairly priced after biotech destocking.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MUMemory is a commodity cycle dressed in AI clothing; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
NDAQA toll-bridge exchange wrapped around a debt-funded software bet, priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BSXGreat franchise, full price: BSX is a wonderful company at a fair price, not a steal.
Buy · 2026-05-03
DASHDominant local-delivery platform priced for perfection at 4.5x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DDOGReal moat, real growth, but the price already pays for paradise.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EBAYA narrow-moat cash machine priced for stagnation, not for the focused enthusiast niches it dominates.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EQIXBest-in-class interconnection moat, but priced at 1.74x intrinsic value with mid-single-digit ROIC.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
HONHoneywell is a fair industrial about to break itself into three; wait for clearer pricing.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HPEHPE is a B-grade networking-server roll-up trading near fair value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HSICBoring dental distributor at 86% of base IV; cyber scar healed, moat narrower than bulls assume.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HUBBQuality grid-and-electrical compounder, but the price already pays for the runway.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IDXXA near-monopoly on the vet's lab bench, priced for perfection but not insanity.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IEXQuality niche-pump compounder, fairly priced; wait for a wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INTUA toll booth on US small-business and tax filing, on sale.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NRGNRG sells essential electricity in Texas, but the data-center thesis is priced in.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NSCEastern half of a transcontinental railroad, now a UNP merger arb until the STB rules.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NTRSSticky custody franchise at 0.71x IV with rising ROTCE and disciplined buybacks.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NWSADiversified media conglomerate priced 4x its intrinsic value with declining core profits.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
OKEToll-bridge midstream at 18x earnings, but leverage and dilution clip the compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PANWA consolidating cybersecurity platform with negative 10-year ROIC and 64% dilution.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PNCA solid super-regional bank trading near low-end intrinsic value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
POOLAmerica's only national pool distributor, trading at one-quarter of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PKGBoring boxes at half of base-case IV — own the cost-leader.
Buy · 2026-05-04
WABWabtec is a durable rail-toll franchise priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WSTOwns the elastomer stoppers; pay 1.09x base IV and wait.
Hold · 2026-05-05
ZTSZoetis is a wide-moat animal-health compounder priced at a 61% discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-05
PAYXWonderful business, wildly unwonderful price after the Paycor deal.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
ONCyclical power-chip operator priced for stagnation while EV demand digests inventory.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PLDBest-in-class warehouse REIT, but the price still demands faith.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PHGreat industrial compounder, but the price has run past the math.
Trim · 2026-05-04
PSAAmerica's biggest storage landlord, fairly priced, with a quietly narrowing moat.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WDAYA sticky enterprise SaaS toll booth, but priced like the toll never gets repaved.
Buy · 2026-05-05
WDCDecent business at an indecent price; the math says no.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
WATHigh-quality razor-and-blade lab instruments franchise — buy below $310, hold here.
Hold · 2026-05-05
PWRGreat business, terrible price — Quanta trades at twelve times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
RVTYDecent life-sciences franchise, ugly leverage, optically cheap on a damaged earnings base.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SCHWScaled brokerage with deposit-funded float, trading near intrinsic value with limited margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SLBCyclical oilfield-services leader trading at 0.74x base IV — interesting, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SHWBest paint distribution franchise in America, but priced for perfection at 0.84x base IV.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ZBHBoring orthopedic toll-bridge priced for permanent decline; the math says otherwise.
Buy · 2026-05-05
SNAPremium tools franchise, net-cash balance sheet, trading at 45 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TERExcellent ATE duopolist trading at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TFCTruist is a cheap, complicated regional bank trading at less than half intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
RJFA durable advisor-led wealth manager trading at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
SOA regulated utility compounder priced for sunshine, with the IV math saying wait.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SMCIHot AI-server commodity box with accounting smoke; Buffett would walk past.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TDGA toll-booth aerospace monopoly run with private-equity discipline and dangerous leverage.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SWKSApple-tethered RF chipmaker priced for slow death; one customer is the entire thesis.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TECHQuality life-sciences toolmaker, but the price already discounts a perfect decade.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TELDecent connector franchise, terrible incremental returns, priced eight times its base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
XYLQuality water-tech franchise priced for perfection — wait for a bigger discount.
Hold · 2026-05-05
TROWCheap, debt-free active manager bleeding share to passive at a generational discount.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TTWOGreat franchises, terrible compounder economics — wait for GTA VI to clarify the math.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TXTMediocre conglomerate at modest discount; only interesting on a much wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
VLTOHigh-quality DBS-style compounder, but priced at 2x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
USBSuper-regional bank priced for permanent stagnation; cheap if discipline returns.
Buy · 2026-05-05
VRTXGreat franchise, fragile pipeline, hopeless price — pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05