ROIIC
noun · return on incremental invested capital
Tagged analyses
AVGOA great business at a price that already prices in greatness.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
BABoeing is a duopoly franchise being run as a cash-burning wreck.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
IRA serial bolt-on acquirer of mission-critical air compressors trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IRMIron Mountain is a fine business priced like a software company.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
ISRGA wide-moat surgical-robotics toll booth, but priced like the math has to work perfectly.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CMSQuality Michigan utility, but priced for fantasy growth at 2.4x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
CIENCyclical optical-networking specialist priced for permanence at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
JKHYMission-critical core banking utility, fairly priced, with a slow-erosion tail risk.
Buy · 2026-05-04
KDPDecent brands, mediocre returns, levered balance sheet, priced for growth that may not arrive.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GOOGLA wide-moat compounder priced for a war it is also winning.
Buy · 2026-05-03
IBMIBM is a melting mainframe wrapped in Red Hat, priced for AI hopes it will not deliver.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
CNPA leveraged Texas wires monopoly priced for perfection at 1.67x intrinsic value.
Trim · 2026-05-03
COHRA levered photonics roll-up riding the AI optics wave at a price that prices in everything.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
DALDelta is the best airline, but airlines remain a mediocre business at fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CTSHMarket prices Cognizant for permanent decline; 18% ROIC business at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CPAYA high-quality fleet payments toll road trading at roughly a third of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CTRACyclical drillbit on its way to becoming a Devon share — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
LOWLowe's is the cheaper #2 of a durable duopoly trading near reverse-DCF zero growth.
Buy · 2026-05-04
LULUA 42% ROIC athletic brand on sale at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CTASA great compounder priced like one — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-03
COONumber-three contact lens player at 0.66x IV, but ROIC of 4.9% sinks the compounder thesis.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LUVSouthwest is dismantling its identity to chase legacy economics at a price the math cannot defend.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LYBCyclical commodity petchem priced like a compounder; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MASA two-brand toll booth on home improvement, fairly priced and quietly compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MOSPhosphate-potash price-taker trading at 1.79x intrinsic value; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
PLTRRemarkable software, impossible price — Palantir at 758x earnings is a Too Hard.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
UBERUber finally earns its keep, but robotaxis make the runway unknowable.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
VVisa is the larger half of the world's best duopoly, on sale below intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
WMTGreat business, terrible price — wait for a 50% drawdown.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
FSLRCyclical commodity manufacturer trading at three times intrinsic value on policy hopes.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
FRTA trophy-grade retail REIT trading rich for what is, at best, a 5-6% AFFO compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
AEPFairly priced regulated utility — own only on a 25% pullback.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMEAMETEK is a wonderful business at a price that is merely fair.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DPure-play Virginia data-center utility at 16x intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DHRGreat franchise, ordinary returns on capital, priced like the bioprocessing boom returns.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DRICasual-dining low-cost producer earning 21% on capital, priced at 72 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ALLEWonderful door-hardware franchise, but the price already pays for the next decade.
Hold · 2026-05-03
EAOwn a sports-licensing toll booth at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ECLEcolab is a wide-moat compounder, but the price already pays for the data-center boom.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EFXOligopoly bureau with a workhorse in Workforce Solutions, but priced for sunshine.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ELVCheap BCBS licensee with eroding economics; statistical bargain, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EPAMHigh-quality engineering shop on sale, but the customer is rebuilding the engine in flight.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ERIEA toll bridge on a mutual insurer — fee-only, asset-light, and finally not expensive.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MRSHWorld's largest insurance broker, asset-light annuity, trading at 43 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
APDA great oligopoly business diluted by a hydrogen capex hangover priced at no margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AVBBest-in-class coastal apartment REIT trading 27 percent below base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
EXELargest US gas producer is a price-taker; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
FFord trades above any reasonable IV; cyclical capital-incinerator with no durable moat.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
FDSFactSet is a sticky financial-data toll booth selling near tangible book of its earnings power.
Buy · 2026-05-04
FIXA great mechanical contractor priced as if data-center backlog never disappoints.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
GDDYGoDaddy is a toll-booth on small-business identity, trading near a fair multiple.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GISBranded packaged-food cash machine on sale at 7x earnings, but slow-melting ice cube.
Buy · 2026-05-04
GLWReal franchise, fantasy price — wait for the AI fiber dream to crack.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
GMGM is a cheap, capital-intensive cyclical priced for a soft landing it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GNRCA cyclical generator champion priced for a secular outage tailwind that may already be in the stock.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GPCMediocre returns, leveraged balance sheet, optionality from a 2027 spinoff at a fair price.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BDXCheap, indebted med-tech roll-up trading at half base IV — interesting, not obvious.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BKRTwo-headed energy-tech bet on LNG turbines bolted to a commodity oilfield-services tail.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BSXGreat franchise, full price: BSX is a wonderful company at a fair price, not a steal.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CBREAsset-light brokerage king at 0.60x IV, but transactional ROIIC tempers the bargain.
Buy · 2026-05-03
MSCIMSCI is a tollbooth on global equity flows; pay $590, wait.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MSIWonderful public-safety franchise priced like a SaaS darling — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MUMemory is a commodity cycle dressed in AI clothing; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
NDAQA toll-bridge exchange wrapped around a debt-funded software bet, priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NEEFlorida's regulated monopoly is gold; the renewables empire built on tax credits is not.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DASHDominant local-delivery platform priced for perfection at 4.5x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DDOGReal moat, real growth, but the price already pays for paradise.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HONHoneywell is a fair industrial about to break itself into three; wait for clearer pricing.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HPEHPE is a B-grade networking-server roll-up trading near fair value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HSTTrophy hotel REIT trades at a discount, but the asset class is structurally cyclical.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HUBBQuality grid-and-electrical compounder, but the price already pays for the runway.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IDXXA near-monopoly on the vet's lab bench, priced for perfection but not insanity.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IEXQuality niche-pump compounder, fairly priced; wait for a wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INCYA single-drug biotech trading near intrinsic value as Jakafi's patent cliff approaches.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INTUA toll booth on US small-business and tax filing, on sale.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NSCEastern half of a transcontinental railroad, now a UNP merger arb until the STB rules.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ODFLBest-in-class LTL operator at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
OKEToll-bridge midstream at 18x earnings, but leverage and dilution clip the compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PANWA consolidating cybersecurity platform with negative 10-year ROIC and 64% dilution.
Hold · 2026-05-04
POOLAmerica's only national pool distributor, trading at one-quarter of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
WABWabtec is a durable rail-toll franchise priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WSTOwns the elastomer stoppers; pay 1.09x base IV and wait.
Hold · 2026-05-05
PEGCapital-hungry regulated utility priced for growth it cannot earn.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
PKGBoring boxes at half of base-case IV — own the cost-leader.
Buy · 2026-05-04
WMNorth America's irreplaceable landfill toll bridge, currently priced for the bridge plus a tip.
Hold · 2026-05-05
PAYXWonderful business, wildly unwonderful price after the Paycor deal.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
ONCyclical power-chip operator priced for stagnation while EV demand digests inventory.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PHGreat industrial compounder, but the price has run past the math.
Trim · 2026-05-04
WDAYA sticky enterprise SaaS toll booth, but priced like the toll never gets repaved.
Buy · 2026-05-05
WATHigh-quality razor-and-blade lab instruments franchise — buy below $310, hold here.
Hold · 2026-05-05
PLDBest-in-class warehouse REIT, but the price still demands faith.
Hold · 2026-05-04
REGNCheap on paper, but biotech R&D outcomes sit outside our circle.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PWRGreat business, terrible price — Quanta trades at twelve times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
RLA genuine brand earning real returns, but priced as if discounting two more cycles of perfection.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
SHWBest paint distribution franchise in America, but priced for perfection at 0.84x base IV.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TGTA wounded mass-merchant trading at half its base-case value with cyclical, not structural, damage.
Buy · 2026-05-04
WMBToll-road gas pipelines at full freight; pay less than $58.
Hold · 2026-05-05
SWKSApple-tethered RF chipmaker priced for slow death; one customer is the entire thesis.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
ZBHBoring orthopedic toll-bridge priced for permanent decline; the math says otherwise.
Buy · 2026-05-05
SNAPremium tools franchise, net-cash balance sheet, trading at 45 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
SOA regulated utility compounder priced for sunshine, with the IV math saying wait.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TDGA toll-booth aerospace monopoly run with private-equity discipline and dangerous leverage.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TECHQuality life-sciences toolmaker, but the price already discounts a perfect decade.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TELDecent connector franchise, terrible incremental returns, priced eight times its base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
XYLQuality water-tech franchise priced for perfection — wait for a bigger discount.
Hold · 2026-05-05
TMUSA scaled wireless oligopolist trading at a credible discount, but capex math is fragile.
Hold · 2026-05-04
UHSA reasonably priced hospital operator with thin moats, founder control, and policy-driven earnings volatility.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TTWOGreat franchises, terrible compounder economics — wait for GTA VI to clarify the math.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TXTMediocre conglomerate at modest discount; only interesting on a much wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
UDRApartment REIT priced for growth it has never delivered.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TSCORural-lifestyle category-killer with 27% ROIC trading at less than half base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
VRTA real business, but priced 16.8x our base intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
VMCAmerica's largest crushed-stone quarry network trading below intrinsic-value floor.
Buy · 2026-05-05
UPSA toll-bridge logistics network priced for permanent decline.
Hold · 2026-05-05
VZCapital-intensive wireless oligopolist trading at a third off base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-05