Mean Reversion
Tagged analyses
PNCA solid super-regional bank trading near low-end intrinsic value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HUMHumana is a beaten-down Medicare Advantage franchise priced for permanent impairment.
Buy · 2026-05-04
COHRA levered photonics roll-up riding the AI optics wave at a price that prices in everything.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
DPure-play Virginia data-center utility at 16x intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LULUA 42% ROIC athletic brand on sale at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TELDecent connector franchise, terrible incremental returns, priced eight times its base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EDA fine New York utility at almost twice intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
GLWReal franchise, fantasy price — wait for the AI fiber dream to crack.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DHIAmerica's biggest, lowest-cost homebuilder, on sale during a mortgage-rate winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
GSGoldman is a great franchise in a structurally unpredictable business.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
VLORefining is a commodity cycle we cannot price; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
ACGLDisciplined Bermuda underwriter compounding book value through hard-and-soft cycles.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BGCommodity-cyclical agribusiness with no moat and negative IV — pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
ABBVA good drug company at a price that demands a miracle.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
IBMIBM is a melting mainframe wrapped in Red Hat, priced for AI hopes it will not deliver.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
CIENCyclical optical-networking specialist priced for permanence at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
HUBBQuality grid-and-electrical compounder, but the price already pays for the runway.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NRGNRG sells essential electricity in Texas, but the data-center thesis is priced in.
Hold · 2026-05-04
JKHYMission-critical core banking utility, fairly priced, with a slow-erosion tail risk.
Buy · 2026-05-04
IVZInvesco is a discounted scale asset manager whose moat is melting at fee-compression rates.
Buy · 2026-05-04
USBSuper-regional bank priced for permanent stagnation; cheap if discipline returns.
Buy · 2026-05-05
CHDA great compounder, but priced like one — wait for $90 or below.
Hold · 2026-05-03