Margin of Safety
noun · the discount of price to intrinsic value
Tagged analyses
TSLATesla is too hard: outcome depends on bets we cannot rationally handicap.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
AAPLWorld-class business at a fair price; wait for $260 or less.
Hold · 2026-05-03
ABBVA good drug company at a price that demands a miracle.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AMDA cyclical chip designer priced like a perpetual monopoly — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AVGOA great business at a price that already prices in greatness.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AXPAmerican Express is a premium spend-network compounder trading at a meaningful discount to fair value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BABoeing is a duopoly franchise being run as a cash-burning wreck.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
BACGood bank, fair price — own it cheaper or own something better.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CCitigroup is a turnaround bet, not a Buffett-grade compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CARRA pure-play HVAC franchise with toll-bridge economics trading near 10x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CINFA culture-rich super-regional with priced-in book value and outsized equity portfolio leverage.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CMSQuality Michigan utility, but priced for fantasy growth at 2.4x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
CIENCyclical optical-networking specialist priced for permanence at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
IRA serial bolt-on acquirer of mission-critical air compressors trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IRMIron Mountain is a fine business priced like a software company.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
CCIA simple US tower REIT trapped in a complex restructuring; wait for cleaner numbers.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CAHA toll-bridge oligopoly priced for perfection — wait for the next litigation panic.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CHDA great compounder, but priced like one — wait for $90 or below.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CLGreat toothpaste franchise, fair business, fully-priced stock — wait for the wobble.
Hold · 2026-05-03
ISRGA wide-moat surgical-robotics toll booth, but priced like the math has to work perfectly.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IVZInvesco is a discounted scale asset manager whose moat is melting at fee-compression rates.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CMEA toll bridge on global rates and commodities, priced as if the bridge keeps widening.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CNPA leveraged Texas wires monopoly priced for perfection at 1.67x intrinsic value.
Trim · 2026-05-03
JBLExcellent operator in a low-moat business, priced for permanent AI-server tailwinds.
Hold · 2026-05-04
JKHYMission-critical core banking utility, fairly priced, with a slow-erosion tail risk.
Buy · 2026-05-04
KDPDecent brands, mediocre returns, levered balance sheet, priced for growth that may not arrive.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CVXChevron is a fine business but oil prices we cannot forecast.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
DEWide-moat ag franchise on sale at the bottom of its cycle.
Buy · 2026-05-03
GEA great franchise at a price that demands near-perfection.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
GOOGLA wide-moat compounder priced for a war it is also winning.
Buy · 2026-05-03
IBMIBM is a melting mainframe wrapped in Red Hat, priced for AI hopes it will not deliver.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
KOA wonderful business at a fair-plus price; wait for the pitch.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BROFamily-run insurance roll-up; great business, but priced for perfection after the Accession deal.
Hold · 2026-05-03
KEYSExcellent test-and-measurement franchise priced for a future it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
KHCCheap on the surface, but a brand portfolio in slow erosion.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CRWDPremier endpoint security platform priced for perfection at 6.7x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
DOCHealthcare REIT trading near base-case IV; AFFO is the right lens, not GAAP earnings.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LTisch-run holding company, fair businesses, but priced 82% above base intrinsic value.
Trim · 2026-05-04
LDOSSolid government IT contractor priced like a software platform.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
COPBest-in-class E&P with deep low-cost inventory, but oil price decides the outcome.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CTSHMarket prices Cognizant for permanent decline; 18% ROIC business at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
COONumber-three contact lens player at 0.66x IV, but ROIC of 4.9% sinks the compounder thesis.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CPAYA high-quality fleet payments toll road trading at roughly a third of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
DALDelta is the best airline, but airlines remain a mediocre business at fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LOWLowe's is the cheaper #2 of a durable duopoly trading near reverse-DCF zero growth.
Buy · 2026-05-04
LULUA 42% ROIC athletic brand on sale at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NRGNRG sells essential electricity in Texas, but the data-center thesis is priced in.
Hold · 2026-05-04
LLYGreat medicine, fragile math: at $963 we are paying nine times intrinsic value.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
MRKKeytruda is a brilliant tollbooth that loses its toll in 2028.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LUVSouthwest is dismantling its identity to chase legacy economics at a price the math cannot defend.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LVSTwo-asset casino oligopolist priced at twice intrinsic value; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LYBCyclical commodity petchem priced like a compounder; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MASA two-brand toll booth on home improvement, fairly priced and quietly compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MCHPA high-quality analog franchise emerging from a brutal cycle, fully priced today.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MCKA toll-bridge on American drug distribution, but the toll is now priced like a software franchise.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MDLZGlobal snacks toll-bridge trading at fair value while cocoa storm separates owners from renters.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CTASA great compounder priced like one — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-03
MGMAn asset-light casino operator dressed up as a compounder; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MMMA wounded compounder priced for stagnation, with optionality if litigation tails settle.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MOSPhosphate-potash price-taker trading at 1.79x intrinsic value; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
PLTRRemarkable software, impossible price — Palantir at 758x earnings is a Too Hard.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
TXNA wide-moat analog catalog house mid-cycle, mid-capex; buy under $130, trim above $215.
Buy · 2026-05-03
UNHCheap on paper, but regulatory fog and a leadership shock push UNH into the too-hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
VVisa is the larger half of the world's best duopoly, on sale below intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
WMTGreat business, terrible price — wait for a 50% drawdown.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
XOMExxonMobil is a commodity giant whose value floats on a barrel of oil.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
ABNBToll-bridge marketplace at half intrinsic value, but stock-based comp keeps the toll leaky.
Buy · 2026-05-03
FSLRCyclical commodity manufacturer trading at three times intrinsic value on policy hopes.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
FRTA trophy-grade retail REIT trading rich for what is, at best, a 5-6% AFFO compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
AEPFairly priced regulated utility — own only on a 25% pullback.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AIZBoring specialty insurer with sticky B2B2C contracts trading at two-thirds of base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-03
AIGAIG is a turnaround P&C insurer; pay book value, not a premium.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMEAMETEK is a wonderful business at a price that is merely fair.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DPure-play Virginia data-center utility at 16x intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DGXQuest is a tollbooth on American blood draws, fairly priced for its modest growth.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DHIAmerica's biggest, lowest-cost homebuilder, on sale during a mortgage-rate winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
DHRGreat franchise, ordinary returns on capital, priced like the bioprocessing boom returns.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DPZAsset-light pizza franchisor compounding global units at a clear discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ALLEWonderful door-hardware franchise, but the price already pays for the next decade.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DRICasual-dining low-cost producer earning 21% on capital, priced at 72 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
EAOwn a sports-licensing toll booth at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ECLEcolab is a wide-moat compounder, but the price already pays for the data-center boom.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EDA fine New York utility at almost twice intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
EFXOligopoly bureau with a workhorse in Workforce Solutions, but priced for sunshine.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ELVCheap BCBS licensee with eroding economics; statistical bargain, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EMRQuality automation franchise, fairly priced; wait for fear or AspenTech indigestion.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EPAMHigh-quality engineering shop on sale, but the customer is rebuilding the engine in flight.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ERIEA toll bridge on a mutual insurer — fee-only, asset-light, and finally not expensive.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ESSIrreplaceable West Coast apartment portfolio at half of conservative intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ETNGreat electrical franchise riding a real tailwind, priced for it.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ALBAlbemarle is a lithium price bet wearing a chemicals company costume.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
AJGWorld-class insurance brokerage roll-up; balance sheet stretched, price near intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMPAmeriprise is a fee-based wealth franchise wearing an annuity overcoat at half price.
Buy · 2026-05-03
APACyclical E&P at one-third of base IV; cheap, not a compounder.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
AMGNAmgen looks cheap on owner earnings, but Horizon-debt and patent cliffs cap conviction.
Hold · 2026-05-03
APPAppLovin is a brilliant ad-tech machine priced for perfection at 1.5x intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
APDA great oligopoly business diluted by a hydrogen capex hangover priced at no margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AVBBest-in-class coastal apartment REIT trading 27 percent below base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
ETRGulf-coast regulated utility riding a once-in-a-generation industrial load wave at fair price.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EVRGA regulated Kansas-Missouri utility selling at a 41% discount to base intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EXELargest US gas producer is a price-taker; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
EXPDAsset-light freight forwarder with 65% ROIC; pay closer to $130 for margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EXPEA scarred OTA #2 trading near fair value with a structural search-traffic problem.
Hold · 2026-05-04
FFord trades above any reasonable IV; cyclical capital-incinerator with no durable moat.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
FDSFactSet is a sticky financial-data toll booth selling near tangible book of its earnings power.
Buy · 2026-05-04
FISVFi sells at 25 cents on the dollar of base intrinsic value while compounding at 17% ROIC.
Buy · 2026-05-04
FIXA great mechanical contractor priced as if data-center backlog never disappoints.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
BBYA toll on a flat electronics market — pay less than $90 or pass.
Hold · 2026-05-03
GDDYGoDaddy is a toll-booth on small-business identity, trading near a fair multiple.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GENA toll-bridge on consumer cyber-anxiety, levered but cash-rich at 8.9x earnings.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GISBranded packaged-food cash machine on sale at 7x earnings, but slow-melting ice cube.
Buy · 2026-05-04
GLWReal franchise, fantasy price — wait for the AI fiber dream to crack.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
GNRCA cyclical generator champion priced for a secular outage tailwind that may already be in the stock.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BENFamily-controlled asset gatherer fighting active outflows; cheap, but moat is leaking.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BAXA levered post-spinoff stub running on saline, hope, and bondholders' patience.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
BIIBCheap-looking biotech with a melting franchise; the price is the only good thing.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BDXCheap, indebted med-tech roll-up trading at half base IV — interesting, not obvious.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BKRTwo-headed energy-tech bet on LNG turbines bolted to a commodity oilfield-services tail.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CAGCheap brand portfolio at $14, but leverage and GLP-1 cloud the compounding case.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BKWorld-class custody franchise, but priced for a cycle peak.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BSXGreat franchise, full price: BSX is a wonderful company at a fair price, not a steal.
Buy · 2026-05-03
HASMagic and D&D are the prize; the toy business is the tax.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MSCIMSCI is a tollbooth on global equity flows; pay $590, wait.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MSIWonderful public-safety franchise priced like a SaaS darling — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MTDA wide-moat precision-instruments compounder, fairly priced after biotech destocking.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NDAQA toll-bridge exchange wrapped around a debt-funded software bet, priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HCAAmerica's best-run hospital operator, levered to the gills, trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NEEFlorida's regulated monopoly is gold; the renewables empire built on tax credits is not.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DASHDominant local-delivery platform priced for perfection at 4.5x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DDOGReal moat, real growth, but the price already pays for paradise.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EBAYA narrow-moat cash machine priced for stagnation, not for the focused enthusiast niches it dominates.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EQIXBest-in-class interconnection moat, but priced at 1.74x intrinsic value with mid-single-digit ROIC.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
HPEHPE is a B-grade networking-server roll-up trading near fair value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HSICBoring dental distributor at 86% of base IV; cyber scar healed, moat narrower than bulls assume.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CBREAsset-light brokerage king at 0.60x IV, but transactional ROIIC tempers the bargain.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BXPTrophy office in a structurally impaired asset class trades closer to fair than cheap.
Hold · 2026-05-03
HUBBQuality grid-and-electrical compounder, but the price already pays for the runway.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HUMHumana is a beaten-down Medicare Advantage franchise priced for permanent impairment.
Buy · 2026-05-04
IDXXA near-monopoly on the vet's lab bench, priced for perfection but not insanity.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IEXQuality niche-pump compounder, fairly priced; wait for a wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INCYA single-drug biotech trading near intrinsic value as Jakafi's patent cliff approaches.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INTUA toll booth on US small-business and tax filing, on sale.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NUEBest-in-class commodity steelmaker at a cyclical mid-cycle price; wait for blood.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NVRA great homebuilding business trading at twelve times earnings during the cyclical winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NWSADiversified media conglomerate priced 4x its intrinsic value with declining core profits.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
OBond-proxy net-lease REIT trading near intrinsic value, but compounding has slowed materially.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ODFLBest-in-class LTL operator at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
OKEToll-bridge midstream at 18x earnings, but leverage and dilution clip the compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PANWA consolidating cybersecurity platform with negative 10-year ROIC and 64% dilution.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PNCA solid super-regional bank trading near low-end intrinsic value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PHMA well-run cyclical homebuilder, cheap on cycle-peak earnings, not a forever compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PGRProgressive is a low-cost auto insurance machine trading at half intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PKGBoring boxes at half of base-case IV — own the cost-leader.
Buy · 2026-05-04
VTRREIT trading at 12x base intrinsic value with zero ten-year ROIC.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
WABWabtec is a durable rail-toll franchise priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WATHigh-quality razor-and-blade lab instruments franchise — buy below $310, hold here.
Hold · 2026-05-05
PEGCapital-hungry regulated utility priced for growth it cannot earn.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
POOLAmerica's only national pool distributor, trading at one-quarter of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PSXA commodity refiner with negative intrinsic value at $176 — a classic Too Hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PRUCheap optically, but a commodity life insurer with no demonstrated compounding power.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
WYGreat timberland, mediocre business economics, priced 84% above base intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
PAYXWonderful business, wildly unwonderful price after the Paycor deal.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
PSAAmerica's biggest storage landlord, fairly priced, with a quietly narrowing moat.
Hold · 2026-05-04
REGNCheap on paper, but biotech R&D outcomes sit outside our circle.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
WSTOwns the elastomer stoppers; pay 1.09x base IV and wait.
Hold · 2026-05-05
ONCyclical power-chip operator priced for stagnation while EV demand digests inventory.
Buy · 2026-05-04
OXYA commodity producer at 2x intrinsic value fails the circle-of-competence test.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PLDBest-in-class warehouse REIT, but the price still demands faith.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PHGreat industrial compounder, but the price has run past the math.
Trim · 2026-05-04
PWRGreat business, terrible price — Quanta trades at twelve times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
SATSEchoStar is a spectrum-and-satellite story priced above base intrinsic value.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
RLA genuine brand earning real returns, but priced as if discounting two more cycles of perfection.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
RVTYDecent life-sciences franchise, ugly leverage, optically cheap on a damaged earnings base.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SCHWScaled brokerage with deposit-funded float, trading near intrinsic value with limited margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WDAYA sticky enterprise SaaS toll booth, but priced like the toll never gets repaved.
Buy · 2026-05-05
WMBToll-road gas pipelines at full freight; pay less than $58.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WDCDecent business at an indecent price; the math says no.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
WYNNTrophy casino assets concentrated in Macau, levered, priced above base-case IV.
Hold · 2026-05-05
SLBCyclical oilfield-services leader trading at 0.74x base IV — interesting, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TGTA wounded mass-merchant trading at half its base-case value with cyclical, not structural, damage.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ZTSZoetis is a wide-moat animal-health compounder priced at a 61% discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-05
XYLQuality water-tech franchise priced for perfection — wait for a bigger discount.
Hold · 2026-05-05
TA capital-intensive utility-telecom with no excess returns and a negative implied IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
RJFA durable advisor-led wealth manager trading at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
SOA regulated utility compounder priced for sunshine, with the IV math saying wait.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SNAPremium tools franchise, net-cash balance sheet, trading at 45 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TERExcellent ATE duopolist trading at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TECHQuality life-sciences toolmaker, but the price already discounts a perfect decade.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TFCTruist is a cheap, complicated regional bank trading at less than half intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TELDecent connector franchise, terrible incremental returns, priced eight times its base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
ZBHBoring orthopedic toll-bridge priced for permanent decline; the math says otherwise.
Buy · 2026-05-05
WRBDisciplined specialty P&C underwriter trading near intrinsic value, not below it.
Hold · 2026-05-05
TRVDisciplined P&C underwriter trading near base case IV with modest margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TROWCheap, debt-free active manager bleeding share to passive at a generational discount.
Buy · 2026-05-04
UHSA reasonably priced hospital operator with thin moats, founder control, and policy-driven earnings volatility.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TTWOGreat franchises, terrible compounder economics — wait for GTA VI to clarify the math.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TXTMediocre conglomerate at modest discount; only interesting on a much wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
UDRApartment REIT priced for growth it has never delivered.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
UALAirlines are the archetypal too-hard pile; cheap is not enough.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TSCORural-lifestyle category-killer with 27% ROIC trading at less than half base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
UPSA toll-bridge logistics network priced for permanent decline.
Hold · 2026-05-05
BGCommodity-cyclical agribusiness with no moat and negative IV — pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
VLTOHigh-quality DBS-style compounder, but priced at 2x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
TKOUFC plus WWE is a fine asset, but the price is fantasy.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
KVUEIconic consumer-health brands, but a pending Kimberly-Clark merger has eaten the upside.
Hold · 2026-05-05
VMCAmerica's largest crushed-stone quarry network trading below intrinsic-value floor.
Buy · 2026-05-05
USBSuper-regional bank priced for permanent stagnation; cheap if discipline returns.
Buy · 2026-05-05
VRTA real business, but priced 16.8x our base intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
VRTXGreat franchise, fragile pipeline, hopeless price — pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
VZCapital-intensive wireless oligopolist trading at a third off base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
CEGLargest U.S. nuclear fleet at 2.2x intrinsic value is a hope trade, not an investment.
Avoid · 2026-05-05