Inversion
noun · turn the problem upside down to see what destroys value
Tagged analyses
MDLZGlobal snacks toll-bridge trading at fair value while cocoa storm separates owners from renters.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TXNA wide-moat analog catalog house mid-cycle, mid-capex; buy under $130, trim above $215.
Buy · 2026-05-03
HSICBoring dental distributor at 86% of base IV; cyber scar healed, moat narrower than bulls assume.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BACGood bank, fair price — own it cheaper or own something better.
Hold · 2026-05-03
ECLEcolab is a wide-moat compounder, but the price already pays for the data-center boom.
Hold · 2026-05-04
REGNCheap on paper, but biotech R&D outcomes sit outside our circle.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
HCAAmerica's best-run hospital operator, levered to the gills, trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ALBAlbemarle is a lithium price bet wearing a chemicals company costume.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
WBDWarner Bros Discovery is a melting-ice-cube media conglomerate trading above any defensible value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
NEEFlorida's regulated monopoly is gold; the renewables empire built on tax credits is not.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PCGCalifornia's regulated monopoly with negative owner earnings and a wildfire option strapped to it.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
CMSQuality Michigan utility, but priced for fantasy growth at 2.4x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
APDA great oligopoly business diluted by a hydrogen capex hangover priced at no margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-03
EXELargest US gas producer is a price-taker; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
IRA serial bolt-on acquirer of mission-critical air compressors trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ZBHBoring orthopedic toll-bridge priced for permanent decline; the math says otherwise.
Buy · 2026-05-05
OBond-proxy net-lease REIT trading near intrinsic value, but compounding has slowed materially.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TGTA wounded mass-merchant trading at half its base-case value with cyclical, not structural, damage.
Buy · 2026-05-04
UHSA reasonably priced hospital operator with thin moats, founder control, and policy-driven earnings volatility.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MOSPhosphate-potash price-taker trading at 1.79x intrinsic value; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
CEGLargest U.S. nuclear fleet at 2.2x intrinsic value is a hope trade, not an investment.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
MTDA wide-moat precision-instruments compounder, fairly priced after biotech destocking.
Hold · 2026-05-04
KDPDecent brands, mediocre returns, levered balance sheet, priced for growth that may not arrive.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WDAYA sticky enterprise SaaS toll booth, but priced like the toll never gets repaved.
Buy · 2026-05-05
WABWabtec is a durable rail-toll franchise priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-05
SHWBest paint distribution franchise in America, but priced for perfection at 0.84x base IV.
Hold · 2026-05-04
UNHCheap on paper, but regulatory fog and a leadership shock push UNH into the too-hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
JNJToo Hard: pharma cliff, talc tail, and a ROIC that collapsed to zero.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
SNAPremium tools franchise, net-cash balance sheet, trading at 45 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
LTisch-run holding company, fair businesses, but priced 82% above base intrinsic value.
Trim · 2026-05-04
MCKA toll-bridge on American drug distribution, but the toll is now priced like a software franchise.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
PGRProgressive is a low-cost auto insurance machine trading at half intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
BXPTrophy office in a structurally impaired asset class trades closer to fair than cheap.
Hold · 2026-05-03
XOMExxonMobil is a commodity giant whose value floats on a barrel of oil.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
CTSHMarket prices Cognizant for permanent decline; 18% ROIC business at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
RJFA durable advisor-led wealth manager trading at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MMMA wounded compounder priced for stagnation, with optionality if litigation tails settle.
Buy · 2026-05-04
EVRGA regulated Kansas-Missouri utility selling at a 41% discount to base intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
AVBBest-in-class coastal apartment REIT trading 27 percent below base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
ERIEA toll bridge on a mutual insurer — fee-only, asset-light, and finally not expensive.
Buy · 2026-05-04
WRBDisciplined specialty P&C underwriter trading near intrinsic value, not below it.
Hold · 2026-05-05
OXYA commodity producer at 2x intrinsic value fails the circle-of-competence test.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
KOA wonderful business at a fair-plus price; wait for the pitch.
Hold · 2026-05-03
UPSA toll-bridge logistics network priced for permanent decline.
Hold · 2026-05-05
CCitigroup is a turnaround bet, not a Buffett-grade compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-03
MRKKeytruda is a brilliant tollbooth that loses its toll in 2028.
Hold · 2026-05-03
EIXCheap on rate base, but California wildfire risk caps the upside.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WSTOwns the elastomer stoppers; pay 1.09x base IV and wait.
Hold · 2026-05-05
TFCTruist is a cheap, complicated regional bank trading at less than half intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BABoeing is a duopoly franchise being run as a cash-burning wreck.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AIZBoring specialty insurer with sticky B2B2C contracts trading at two-thirds of base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-03
VRTA real business, but priced 16.8x our base intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
AJGWorld-class insurance brokerage roll-up; balance sheet stretched, price near intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CINFA culture-rich super-regional with priced-in book value and outsized equity portfolio leverage.
Buy · 2026-05-03
PHMA well-run cyclical homebuilder, cheap on cycle-peak earnings, not a forever compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04