Cyclicality
Tagged analyses
GMGM is a cheap, capital-intensive cyclical priced for a soft landing it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
LUVSouthwest is dismantling its identity to chase legacy economics at a price the math cannot defend.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TRVDisciplined P&C underwriter trading near base case IV with modest margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MCHPA high-quality analog franchise emerging from a brutal cycle, fully priced today.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WYNNTrophy casino assets concentrated in Macau, levered, priced above base-case IV.
Hold · 2026-05-05
PSXA commodity refiner with negative intrinsic value at $176 — a classic Too Hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
CTVADecent ag-input duopoly, balance sheet net cash, but priced at 4x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
EXPDAsset-light freight forwarder with 65% ROIC; pay closer to $130 for margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EFXOligopoly bureau with a workhorse in Workforce Solutions, but priced for sunshine.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HSTTrophy hotel REIT trades at a discount, but the asset class is structurally cyclical.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MGMAn asset-light casino operator dressed up as a compounder; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
AIGAIG is a turnaround P&C insurer; pay book value, not a premium.
Hold · 2026-05-03
VMCAmerica's largest crushed-stone quarry network trading below intrinsic-value floor.
Buy · 2026-05-05
GEA great franchise at a price that demands near-perfection.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
MSMorgan Stanley is a half-great wealth manager bolted to a cyclical investment bank.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HASMagic and D&D are the prize; the toy business is the tax.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NUEBest-in-class commodity steelmaker at a cyclical mid-cycle price; wait for blood.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ETNGreat electrical franchise riding a real tailwind, priced for it.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GSGoldman is a great franchise in a structurally unpredictable business.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
FIXA great mechanical contractor priced as if data-center backlog never disappoints.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
WRBDisciplined specialty P&C underwriter trading near intrinsic value, not below it.
Hold · 2026-05-05
NVRA great homebuilding business trading at twelve times earnings during the cyclical winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CIENCyclical optical-networking specialist priced for permanence at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
TERExcellent ATE duopolist trading at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
SLBCyclical oilfield-services leader trading at 0.74x base IV — interesting, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GPCMediocre returns, leveraged balance sheet, optionality from a 2027 spinoff at a fair price.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NRGNRG sells essential electricity in Texas, but the data-center thesis is priced in.
Hold · 2026-05-04
VRTA real business, but priced 16.8x our base intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-05