Cost Advantage
Tagged analyses
MDLZGlobal snacks toll-bridge trading at fair value while cocoa storm separates owners from renters.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GMGM is a cheap, capital-intensive cyclical priced for a soft landing it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
LUVSouthwest is dismantling its identity to chase legacy economics at a price the math cannot defend.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TMUSA scaled wireless oligopolist trading at a credible discount, but capex math is fragile.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TXNA wide-moat analog catalog house mid-cycle, mid-capex; buy under $130, trim above $215.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BACGood bank, fair price — own it cheaper or own something better.
Hold · 2026-05-03
HUMHumana is a beaten-down Medicare Advantage franchise priced for permanent impairment.
Buy · 2026-05-04
STXSeagate sells commodity HDDs in a tech-curve race we cannot handicap.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
SCHWScaled brokerage with deposit-funded float, trading near intrinsic value with limited margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ONCyclical power-chip operator priced for stagnation while EV demand digests inventory.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ALBAlbemarle is a lithium price bet wearing a chemicals company costume.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
PSXA commodity refiner with negative intrinsic value at $176 — a classic Too Hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
CTASA great compounder priced like one — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-03
APDA great oligopoly business diluted by a hydrogen capex hangover priced at no margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-03
EXELargest US gas producer is a price-taker; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
WYGreat timberland, mediocre business economics, priced 84% above base intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
GNRCA cyclical generator champion priced for a secular outage tailwind that may already be in the stock.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PWRGreat business, terrible price — Quanta trades at twelve times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TGTA wounded mass-merchant trading at half its base-case value with cyclical, not structural, damage.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MOSPhosphate-potash price-taker trading at 1.79x intrinsic value; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
CVXChevron is a fine business but oil prices we cannot forecast.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
AIGAIG is a turnaround P&C insurer; pay book value, not a premium.
Hold · 2026-05-03
GOOGLA wide-moat compounder priced for a war it is also winning.
Buy · 2026-05-03
COPBest-in-class E&P with deep low-cost inventory, but oil price decides the outcome.
Hold · 2026-05-03
ODFLBest-in-class LTL operator at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CAHA toll-bridge oligopoly priced for perfection — wait for the next litigation panic.
Hold · 2026-05-03
TSCORural-lifestyle category-killer with 27% ROIC trading at less than half base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PHGreat industrial compounder, but the price has run past the math.
Trim · 2026-05-04
NSCEastern half of a transcontinental railroad, now a UNP merger arb until the STB rules.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PGRProgressive is a low-cost auto insurance machine trading at half intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
DHIAmerica's biggest, lowest-cost homebuilder, on sale during a mortgage-rate winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CTRACyclical drillbit on its way to becoming a Devon share — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
VLORefining is a commodity cycle we cannot price; pass.
Too Hard · 2026-05-05
ACGLDisciplined Bermuda underwriter compounding book value through hard-and-soft cycles.
Buy · 2026-05-03
PSAAmerica's biggest storage landlord, fairly priced, with a quietly narrowing moat.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CTSHMarket prices Cognizant for permanent decline; 18% ROIC business at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
NVRA great homebuilding business trading at twelve times earnings during the cyclical winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
UPSA toll-bridge logistics network priced for permanent decline.
Hold · 2026-05-05
GPCMediocre returns, leveraged balance sheet, optionality from a 2027 spinoff at a fair price.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NRGNRG sells essential electricity in Texas, but the data-center thesis is priced in.
Hold · 2026-05-04
FSLRCyclical commodity manufacturer trading at three times intrinsic value on policy hopes.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
OKEToll-bridge midstream at 18x earnings, but leverage and dilution clip the compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WMTGreat business, terrible price — wait for a 50% drawdown.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
SMCIHot AI-server commodity box with accounting smoke; Buffett would walk past.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PKGBoring boxes at half of base-case IV — own the cost-leader.
Buy · 2026-05-04