Capital Cycle

Tagged analyses

depth score: 0

FFord trades above any reasonable IV; cyclical capital-incinerator with no durable moat.

Avoid · 2026-05-04

DALDelta is the best airline, but airlines remain a mediocre business at fair value.

Hold · 2026-05-03

LENLennar at 0.15x IV is a cyclical bargain — but homebuilding is not Clayton.

Hold · 2026-05-04

EXELargest US gas producer is a price-taker; pass.

Too Hard · 2026-05-04

ARECheap-looking lab REIT trades at 36% of base IV but the moat is leaking.

Hold · 2026-05-03

ARESA toll booth on private credit, but the toll is now priced for perfection.

Hold · 2026-05-03

BKRTwo-headed energy-tech bet on LNG turbines bolted to a commodity oilfield-services tail.

Hold · 2026-05-03

SOA regulated utility compounder priced for sunshine, with the IV math saying wait.

Hold · 2026-05-04

NUEBest-in-class commodity steelmaker at a cyclical mid-cycle price; wait for blood.

Hold · 2026-05-04

BGCommodity-cyclical agribusiness with no moat and negative IV — pass.

Too Hard · 2026-05-05

APHWorld-class connector compounder, but priced for perfection at 2.5x base IV.

Avoid · 2026-05-03

SLBCyclical oilfield-services leader trading at 0.74x base IV — interesting, not a compounder.

Hold · 2026-05-04

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