Capital Allocation
noun · how management deploys each retained dollar
Tagged analyses
AAPLWorld-class business at a fair price; wait for $260 or less.
Hold · 2026-05-03
ABBVA good drug company at a price that demands a miracle.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AMDA cyclical chip designer priced like a perpetual monopoly — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AVGOA great business at a price that already prices in greatness.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
AXPAmerican Express is a premium spend-network compounder trading at a meaningful discount to fair value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BABoeing is a duopoly franchise being run as a cash-burning wreck.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
BACGood bank, fair price — own it cheaper or own something better.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CCitigroup is a turnaround bet, not a Buffett-grade compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CCIA simple US tower REIT trapped in a complex restructuring; wait for cleaner numbers.
Hold · 2026-05-03
IRA serial bolt-on acquirer of mission-critical air compressors trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CARRA pure-play HVAC franchise with toll-bridge economics trading near 10x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
BROFamily-run insurance roll-up; great business, but priced for perfection after the Accession deal.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CINFA culture-rich super-regional with priced-in book value and outsized equity portfolio leverage.
Buy · 2026-05-03
CHDA great compounder, but priced like one — wait for $90 or below.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CLGreat toothpaste franchise, fair business, fully-priced stock — wait for the wobble.
Hold · 2026-05-03
ISRGA wide-moat surgical-robotics toll booth, but priced like the math has to work perfectly.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IVZInvesco is a discounted scale asset manager whose moat is melting at fee-compression rates.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CMEA toll bridge on global rates and commodities, priced as if the bridge keeps widening.
Hold · 2026-05-03
COHRA levered photonics roll-up riding the AI optics wave at a price that prices in everything.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
JBLExcellent operator in a low-moat business, priced for permanent AI-server tailwinds.
Hold · 2026-05-04
JKHYMission-critical core banking utility, fairly priced, with a slow-erosion tail risk.
Buy · 2026-05-04
KDPDecent brands, mediocre returns, levered balance sheet, priced for growth that may not arrive.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CVXChevron is a fine business but oil prices we cannot forecast.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
GEA great franchise at a price that demands near-perfection.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
DISIconic IP, two great businesses, one bleeding pivot — too hard at $103.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
GOOGLA wide-moat compounder priced for a war it is also winning.
Buy · 2026-05-03
KOA wonderful business at a fair-plus price; wait for the pitch.
Hold · 2026-05-03
KEYSExcellent test-and-measurement franchise priced for a future it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
KHCCheap on the surface, but a brand portfolio in slow erosion.
Hold · 2026-05-04
KKRAlt-AM compounder with sticky locked-up capital, trading at a one-third discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
CTSHMarket prices Cognizant for permanent decline; 18% ROIC business at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-03
LTisch-run holding company, fair businesses, but priced 82% above base intrinsic value.
Trim · 2026-05-04
LDOSSolid government IT contractor priced like a software platform.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
LLYGreat medicine, fragile math: at $963 we are paying nine times intrinsic value.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
COPBest-in-class E&P with deep low-cost inventory, but oil price decides the outcome.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CPAYA high-quality fleet payments toll road trading at roughly a third of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
DDCyclical chemicals roll-up mid-breakup; the math says wait, not own.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
DOCHealthcare REIT trading near base-case IV; AFFO is the right lens, not GAAP earnings.
Hold · 2026-05-03
LIIGreat HVAC franchise, lousy entry price — wait for a cycle break.
Hold · 2026-05-04
LOWLowe's is the cheaper #2 of a durable duopoly trading near reverse-DCF zero growth.
Buy · 2026-05-04
MSMorgan Stanley is a half-great wealth manager bolted to a cyclical investment bank.
Hold · 2026-05-03
MRKKeytruda is a brilliant tollbooth that loses its toll in 2028.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CTVADecent ag-input duopoly, balance sheet net cash, but priced at 4x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
CVSA three-headed conglomerate trading at owner-earnings parity but with no durable moat.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
LULUA 42% ROIC athletic brand on sale at 11x earnings.
Buy · 2026-05-04
LVSTwo-asset casino oligopolist priced at twice intrinsic value; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MASA two-brand toll booth on home improvement, fairly priced and quietly compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MCHPA high-quality analog franchise emerging from a brutal cycle, fully priced today.
Hold · 2026-05-04
METMetLife is a serviceable life insurer trading at a sensible discount, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MGMAn asset-light casino operator dressed up as a compounder; pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
MMMA wounded compounder priced for stagnation, with optionality if litigation tails settle.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TXNA wide-moat analog catalog house mid-cycle, mid-capex; buy under $130, trim above $215.
Buy · 2026-05-03
WMTGreat business, terrible price — wait for a 50% drawdown.
Avoid · 2026-05-03
XOMExxonMobil is a commodity giant whose value floats on a barrel of oil.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
ACGLDisciplined Bermuda underwriter compounding book value through hard-and-soft cycles.
Buy · 2026-05-03
AIZBoring specialty insurer with sticky B2B2C contracts trading at two-thirds of base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-03
AIGAIG is a turnaround P&C insurer; pay book value, not a premium.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMEAMETEK is a wonderful business at a price that is merely fair.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DPure-play Virginia data-center utility at 16x intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
DGXQuest is a tollbooth on American blood draws, fairly priced for its modest growth.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DHIAmerica's biggest, lowest-cost homebuilder, on sale during a mortgage-rate winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
DHRGreat franchise, ordinary returns on capital, priced like the bioprocessing boom returns.
Hold · 2026-05-04
DPZAsset-light pizza franchisor compounding global units at a clear discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-04
DRICasual-dining low-cost producer earning 21% on capital, priced at 72 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
EAOwn a sports-licensing toll booth at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ALBAlbemarle is a lithium price bet wearing a chemicals company costume.
Too Hard · 2026-05-03
ELVCheap BCBS licensee with eroding economics; statistical bargain, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EMRQuality automation franchise, fairly priced; wait for fear or AspenTech indigestion.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ESSIrreplaceable West Coast apartment portfolio at half of conservative intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
ETNGreat electrical franchise riding a real tailwind, priced for it.
Hold · 2026-05-04
AJGWorld-class insurance brokerage roll-up; balance sheet stretched, price near intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AMPAmeriprise is a fee-based wealth franchise wearing an annuity overcoat at half price.
Buy · 2026-05-03
APDA great oligopoly business diluted by a hydrogen capex hangover priced at no margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-03
AVBBest-in-class coastal apartment REIT trading 27 percent below base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-03
EXPDAsset-light freight forwarder with 65% ROIC; pay closer to $130 for margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EXPEA scarred OTA #2 trading near fair value with a structural search-traffic problem.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BENFamily-controlled asset gatherer fighting active outflows; cheap, but moat is leaking.
Hold · 2026-05-03
FDSFactSet is a sticky financial-data toll booth selling near tangible book of its earnings power.
Buy · 2026-05-04
FISVFi sells at 25 cents on the dollar of base intrinsic value while compounding at 17% ROIC.
Buy · 2026-05-04
FIXA great mechanical contractor priced as if data-center backlog never disappoints.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
BBYA toll on a flat electronics market — pay less than $90 or pass.
Hold · 2026-05-03
GENA toll-bridge on consumer cyber-anxiety, levered but cash-rich at 8.9x earnings.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GISBranded packaged-food cash machine on sale at 7x earnings, but slow-melting ice cube.
Buy · 2026-05-04
GMGM is a cheap, capital-intensive cyclical priced for a soft landing it cannot guarantee.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GNRCA cyclical generator champion priced for a secular outage tailwind that may already be in the stock.
Hold · 2026-05-04
GPCMediocre returns, leveraged balance sheet, optionality from a 2027 spinoff at a fair price.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BIIBCheap-looking biotech with a melting franchise; the price is the only good thing.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BDXCheap, indebted med-tech roll-up trading at half base IV — interesting, not obvious.
Hold · 2026-05-03
CAGCheap brand portfolio at $14, but leverage and GLP-1 cloud the compounding case.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BKWorld-class custody franchise, but priced for a cycle peak.
Hold · 2026-05-03
BSXGreat franchise, full price: BSX is a wonderful company at a fair price, not a steal.
Buy · 2026-05-03
HASMagic and D&D are the prize; the toy business is the tax.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MSIWonderful public-safety franchise priced like a SaaS darling — wait for a better entry.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MTBConservative regional bank trading at fair price; strong franchise but no obvious bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
MTDA wide-moat precision-instruments compounder, fairly priced after biotech destocking.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NDAQA toll-bridge exchange wrapped around a debt-funded software bet, priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BRK-BBerkshire is a fortress compounder whose price now nearly matches its conservative intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-03
HCAAmerica's best-run hospital operator, levered to the gills, trading near fair value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NEEFlorida's regulated monopoly is gold; the renewables empire built on tax credits is not.
Hold · 2026-05-04
BXPTrophy office in a structurally impaired asset class trades closer to fair than cheap.
Hold · 2026-05-03
DASHDominant local-delivery platform priced for perfection at 4.5x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
EBAYA narrow-moat cash machine priced for stagnation, not for the focused enthusiast niches it dominates.
Hold · 2026-05-04
EQIXBest-in-class interconnection moat, but priced at 1.74x intrinsic value with mid-single-digit ROIC.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
HONHoneywell is a fair industrial about to break itself into three; wait for clearer pricing.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HPEHPE is a B-grade networking-server roll-up trading near fair value, not a compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
HSICBoring dental distributor at 86% of base IV; cyber scar healed, moat narrower than bulls assume.
Hold · 2026-05-04
CBREAsset-light brokerage king at 0.60x IV, but transactional ROIIC tempers the bargain.
Buy · 2026-05-03
HUBBQuality grid-and-electrical compounder, but the price already pays for the runway.
Hold · 2026-05-04
IEXQuality niche-pump compounder, fairly priced; wait for a wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INCYA single-drug biotech trading near intrinsic value as Jakafi's patent cliff approaches.
Hold · 2026-05-04
INTUA toll booth on US small-business and tax filing, on sale.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NRGNRG sells essential electricity in Texas, but the data-center thesis is priced in.
Hold · 2026-05-04
NVRA great homebuilding business trading at twelve times earnings during the cyclical winter.
Buy · 2026-05-04
NWSADiversified media conglomerate priced 4x its intrinsic value with declining core profits.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
OBond-proxy net-lease REIT trading near intrinsic value, but compounding has slowed materially.
Hold · 2026-05-04
ODFLBest-in-class LTL operator at a fair price, not a bargain.
Hold · 2026-05-04
OKEToll-bridge midstream at 18x earnings, but leverage and dilution clip the compounding.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PHMA well-run cyclical homebuilder, cheap on cycle-peak earnings, not a forever compounder.
Hold · 2026-05-04
POOLAmerica's only national pool distributor, trading at one-quarter of base intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PKGBoring boxes at half of base-case IV — own the cost-leader.
Buy · 2026-05-04
PSXA commodity refiner with negative intrinsic value at $176 — a classic Too Hard pile.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PRUCheap optically, but a commodity life insurer with no demonstrated compounding power.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
VTRREIT trading at 12x base intrinsic value with zero ten-year ROIC.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
WBDWarner Bros Discovery is a melting-ice-cube media conglomerate trading above any defensible value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
WABWabtec is a durable rail-toll franchise priced for perfection.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WATHigh-quality razor-and-blade lab instruments franchise — buy below $310, hold here.
Hold · 2026-05-05
ZTSZoetis is a wide-moat animal-health compounder priced at a 61% discount to base IV.
Buy · 2026-05-05
PHGreat industrial compounder, but the price has run past the math.
Trim · 2026-05-04
WMBToll-road gas pipelines at full freight; pay less than $58.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WYNNTrophy casino assets concentrated in Macau, levered, priced above base-case IV.
Hold · 2026-05-05
WYGreat timberland, mediocre business economics, priced 84% above base intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
PAYXWonderful business, wildly unwonderful price after the Paycor deal.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
OXYA commodity producer at 2x intrinsic value fails the circle-of-competence test.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
PSAAmerica's biggest storage landlord, fairly priced, with a quietly narrowing moat.
Hold · 2026-05-04
PWRGreat business, terrible price — Quanta trades at twelve times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
WDCDecent business at an indecent price; the math says no.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
RVTYDecent life-sciences franchise, ugly leverage, optically cheap on a damaged earnings base.
Hold · 2026-05-04
SHWBest paint distribution franchise in America, but priced for perfection at 0.84x base IV.
Hold · 2026-05-04
WRBDisciplined specialty P&C underwriter trading near intrinsic value, not below it.
Hold · 2026-05-05
TA capital-intensive utility-telecom with no excess returns and a negative implied IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TERExcellent ATE duopolist trading at four times intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
RJFA durable advisor-led wealth manager trading at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value.
Buy · 2026-05-04
SNAPremium tools franchise, net-cash balance sheet, trading at 45 cents on the dollar.
Buy · 2026-05-04
SMCIHot AI-server commodity box with accounting smoke; Buffett would walk past.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TDGA toll-booth aerospace monopoly run with private-equity discipline and dangerous leverage.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TECHQuality life-sciences toolmaker, but the price already discounts a perfect decade.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
TFCTruist is a cheap, complicated regional bank trading at less than half intrinsic value.
Hold · 2026-05-04
TELDecent connector franchise, terrible incremental returns, priced eight times its base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-04
XYLQuality water-tech franchise priced for perfection — wait for a bigger discount.
Hold · 2026-05-05
ZBHBoring orthopedic toll-bridge priced for permanent decline; the math says otherwise.
Buy · 2026-05-05
TROWCheap, debt-free active manager bleeding share to passive at a generational discount.
Buy · 2026-05-04
UHSA reasonably priced hospital operator with thin moats, founder control, and policy-driven earnings volatility.
Buy · 2026-05-04
TTWOGreat franchises, terrible compounder economics — wait for GTA VI to clarify the math.
Too Hard · 2026-05-04
TXTMediocre conglomerate at modest discount; only interesting on a much wider margin of safety.
Hold · 2026-05-04
VZCapital-intensive wireless oligopolist trading at a third off base IV.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
VLTOHigh-quality DBS-style compounder, but priced at 2x intrinsic value.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
USBSuper-regional bank priced for permanent stagnation; cheap if discipline returns.
Buy · 2026-05-05
VRTA real business, but priced 16.8x our base intrinsic value — pass.
Avoid · 2026-05-05
UPSA toll-bridge logistics network priced for permanent decline.
Hold · 2026-05-05
CEGLargest U.S. nuclear fleet at 2.2x intrinsic value is a hope trade, not an investment.
Avoid · 2026-05-05